In a huge-ranging interview with Anthony Pompliano printed on October 2, Jeff Park, partner and Chief Investing Officer at ProCap BTC, argued that gold’s surging model and keen international possession patterns are no longer a likelihood to Bitcoin—but potentially the catalyst for its next structural leg greater. Park’s thesis centers on flows, geopolitics, and steadiness-sheet mechanics: if policymakers and big allocators learn to faucet the paper beneficial properties embedded in sovereign gold holdings, they’re going to even unprejudiced redirect a vital reduce of that liquidity into Bitcoin and ignite what he over and over framed as a supercycle.
Why Gold’s Rally Might possibly well also Suppose off A Bitcoin Supercycle
“The math is moderately easy,” Park acknowledged. “What if we uncover a capability to free up the flexibility to kind leverage on the paper beneficial properties of gold to take a call likelihood on Bitcoin? There’s something astonishing right here that can also occur.” In his wait on-of-the-envelope topic, “one trillion bucks of Bitcoin is de facto hugely impactful for the bitcoin market.” He contrasted the magnitude of such an impulse with the scale of the US fiscal topic, suggesting that whereas one trillion bucks is small relative to public debt, it’d be outsized in a younger asset with finite provide and thin free waft.
Park’s remarks were ended in by a easy search files from: why is gold ripping whereas Bitcoin has lagged on a relative foundation? He did not dispute gold’s management—calling it “the legend of the year”—but argued the drivers differ. Gold is at the second the venue for acute geopolitical expression and central-bank rebalancing, whereas Bitcoin’s adoption curve hinges on institutional flows which are peaceful ramping. “In some diagram [these markets] are driven by flows,” he acknowledged, adding that Bitcoin’s flows are “inevitable” see you later because the institutional agenda advances with “focused deliberation.”
An vital plank of Park’s framework is the altering geography of gold. He pointed to two simultaneous realities: the headline that US gold reserves beget reached a huge notional price thanks to model—and the under-talked about incontrovertible truth that the US half of international authentic gold has sunk over decades. “At one level put up-World Conflict II the US had over 50% of the area’s international gold reserve provide as a central bank and now it’s no longer as a lot as 20%. So who’s making up for the compensation on their side? Seemingly China and a lot of different BRIC international locations within the lead.” That shift, Park argued, helps ticket the persistence of gold’s listing.
China, in his telling, is exerting impact no longer handiest through accumulation but additionally by constructing market infrastructure. He highlighted “the launch of the Shanghai Gold Swap” and the upward push of “the Shanghai Futures Swap,” looking at that “bodily gold now in actuality trades in China” at a scale once connected to London. In a symbolic pass earlier this year, “for the principle time [they] unfolded vaults in Hong Kong to permit offshore traders to position their gold in reserves,” a step Park sees as portion of a protracted-term solution to enhance the creditworthiness of CNY-settled commodity alternate.
Will The US Act First?
Park then connected this gold realignment to Bitcoin’s addressable search files from. He referred to the topic whereby the US takes the big unrealized beneficial properties on its gold if marked at market and either revalues or borrows towards those beneficial properties to aquire Bitcoin for its strategic reserve under President Donald Trump. “Gold has been marked at the Treasury at $42 an oz. and all of us know appropriate now it’s trading at [roughly] 3850… There’s one trillion bucks of in general paper beneficial properties.” In that context, he argued that leveraging paper beneficial properties correct into a scarce digital reserve asset in general is a high-beta enhance to the sovereign steadiness sheet.
Pressed on the political feasibility, Park celebrated between govt action and legislation. “The government path is a big starting original operate a watershed second,” he acknowledged, but “no democratic coalition is in actuality bought in till a legislative motion.” The veteran can also level to intent; the latter would kind a Bitcoin reserve strategy “irreversible” and align it with the broader social mandate he friends with sound-money adoption.
The crux of his “supercycle” framing is compounding. Park walked through return profiles to quantify why a huge sinister allocation, although financed, can also topic over time. “Whenever you absorb Bitcoin and you judge that it’s going to head up by 12% a year, you’ll kind a 30x in 30 years… Whenever you suspect it’s in actuality going to head up by 40% per year, which is what the [asset] has been in some other case annualizing, it’s 10 years.” He careworn that the level is now to not promise those numbers, but to illustrate how modest annualized returns can cowl vital fiscal gaps when the sinister is big sufficient and the asset is credibly scarce.
Why Is Bitcoin Lagging Gold?
Park also addressed why Bitcoin has no longer matched gold’s original tempo. Section of the answer, he suggested, is optics: Bitcoin is “living, respiratory gadget” that evolves through delivery debate, whereas gold’s enchantment is its millennia-long immutability. The transparency of Bitcoin’s governance can spook rookies who handiest label the noise. “If I were delivery air and I used to be a BlackRock ETF buyer and I listened to the dialog that’s occurring between the Bitcoin developers, I could possibly possibly possibly advise, ‘Support on a second. Right here is loopy stuff.’” Even so, he framed original developer disputes—similar to arguments over relay policy or spam-filter defaults—as hygiene considerations, no longer existential ones. They topic for efficiency and propagation, but no longer for the core financial assurances: “21 million or bust.”
He invoked the teachings of the block-size battle to ticket why the gadget’s checks and balances are a objective, no longer a trojan horse. “In some diagram, who’s operating consensus at Bitcoin?… The node potentialities are very treasured and so they are in control versus miners and their self-interests. And that used to be a giant second since it confirmed you decentralization used to be alive.” The twin carriageway between onerous-coded principles and socially enforced norms will repeatedly invite argument, he conceded, but in his note that direction of “future-proof[s] Bitcoin because the final store of price.”
At some level of, Park returned to flows. Gold’s flows, in his overview, are being pulled by geopolitics and central-bank habits—especially in Asia. Bitcoin’s flows will probably be pulled by institutional adoption and, potentially, by policy innovation that converts dormant steadiness-sheet strength into stuffed with life search files from. That’s why he sees the sources as complements within the identical macro topic region in prefer to opponents battling for a single influx.
“Gold’s wonderful cultural vitality is its impermanent fixture in our mindset and its durability for eons,” he acknowledged. Bitcoin, by disagreement, offers sovereignty, portability, and programmability that youthful cohorts opt up intuitive. “Childhood are mentally extra in a position to operate things that older participants can’t… the pattern of childhood working out digital store of wealth… is the broad image.”
I spoke with @dgt10011 on whether we ought to be unnerved about bitcoin lagging gold’s efficiency, durability of bitcoin vs gold, straightforward the answer to bellow bitcoin as living gadget, and a peculiar theme referencing the retardification of society.
Revel in!
YouTube: https://t.co/kwCRnibemU… pic.twitter.com/0BckI7h7Eb
— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) October 3, 2025
If that generational shift meets a executive-level steadiness-sheet pivot, Park believes the market constructing can switch instant. “A thousand billion bucks of Bitcoin is hugely impactful,” he repeated, no longer since it solves the entirety in a single day, but since it reorganizes incentives for issuers, custodians, and policymakers spherical a credibly scarce digital reserve. In that world, the original interval—the save gold leads and Bitcoin consolidates—can also unprejudiced be remembered no longer as divergence, but as staging.
“Bitcoin will fetch up,” Park acknowledged. “These are within the raze driven by flows.” And if those flows are seeded by the very gold rally now commanding headlines, the supercycle ticket he’s nice looking to use can also unprejudiced no longer be hyperbole, but simply a description of how compounding works when unusual liquidity lastly meets onerous caps.
At press time, BTC traded at $120,313.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
