Ethereum is showing signs of further underperformance against Bitcoin as a potential double-top pattern develops on the ETH/BTC daily chart.
ETH traded near 0.03167 BTC on September 16 after failing to extend its recent recovery. Weakening momentum, renewed regulatory uncertainty and a sharp increase in ETH deposits to Binance are contributing to a cautious short-term outlook.
ETH/BTC double-top pattern points to downside risk
The ETH/BTC chart has formed two peaks near 0.03344 BTC, with the first appearing in August and the second in September. The structure resembles a double-top pattern, which can signal a bearish reversal when buyers repeatedly fail to break through the same resistance level.
The pattern’s neckline is near 0.03078 BTC. A decisive daily close below that level could confirm the setup and open the way toward a measured target around 0.0283 BTC. That would represent an approximate 10% decline from Ethereum’s current value against Bitcoin.
However, the pattern remains unconfirmed. ETH is holding slightly above its 20-day exponential moving average near 0.03162 BTC. A sustained rebound from that level could delay or prevent a breakdown, while a move above 0.03344 BTC would invalidate the double-top scenario and restore a more bullish relative outlook.
Momentum weakens as regulatory uncertainty rises
The ETH/BTC Relative Strength Index has fallen toward 50 after previously moving above the overbought threshold of 70. Although the indicator remains slightly above neutral, its retreat suggests that the momentum behind Ethereum’s August-to-September recovery is fading.
The technical weakness emerged as the U.S. Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on September 15. The procedural vote received 50 votes in favor and 49 against, short of the 60 votes required to move the legislation forward. A procedural change by Senator Thom Tillis left open the possibility of reconsidering the measure.
The setback coincided with a broader cryptocurrency sell-off. Bitcoin fell roughly 4% to around $75,900, while shares of major crypto companies, including Coinbase and Circle, also declined. Regulatory uncertainty may encourage investors to favor Bitcoin over higher-risk assets such as Ethereum, adding pressure to the ETH/BTC pair.
Binance records large ETH inflows
Ethereum exchange deposits have also increased sharply. Approximately 709,400 ETH moved to Binance on September 11, the largest single-day inflow since June. Several other recent sessions recorded inflows above 500,000 ETH, significantly higher than typical levels in July and August.
Higher exchange balances increase the amount of ETH immediately available for trading. Transfers to exchanges do not necessarily mean that holders intend to sell, but unusually large deposits can precede increased market supply and volatility.
The elevated inflows reinforce the cautious outlook created by weakening relative momentum and the setback for the market-structure legislation.
Key levels for ETH/BTC
The bearish scenario depends on ETH/BTC closing decisively below the 0.03078 BTC neckline. Such a move could activate the measured target near 0.0283 BTC.
Support at the 20-day EMA near 0.03162 BTC could still allow Ethereum to rebound. A break above 0.03344 BTC would invalidate the double-top pattern and signal renewed strength against Bitcoin.
