Large Cardano holders have accumulated roughly 160 million ADA since Sunday, even as the token fell more than 7% during the week and traded near $0.210 on Friday. The buying suggests that some whales view the pullback as a potential long-term entry point, but derivatives data indicates that traders remain wary of a near-term recovery.
Whale accumulation fails to halt the decline
According to Santiment’s supply distribution data, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA increased their balances during the latest correction. The accumulation has not yet created enough demand to reverse ADA’s short-term decline, particularly as broader market sentiment remains cautious.
Whale buying during weakness can support a longer-term bullish case, but it does not guarantee an immediate rebound. Current market data instead points to an uncertain outlook, with on-chain accumulation conflicting with bearish positioning in futures markets.
Derivatives indicators send mixed signals
CoinGlass data showed ADA’s long-to-short ratio at 0.90 on Friday, close to its lowest level in more than a month. A reading below 1 indicates that short positions outnumber long positions, suggesting that derivatives traders are positioned for further downside.
Funding data offers a more constructive signal. ADA’s open-interest-weighted funding rate turned positive on Thursday and reached 0.0013% on Friday. Positive funding generally means long-position holders are paying short-position holders, indicating that demand for bullish exposure has increased. However, the divergence between the funding rate and the long-to-short ratio reflects continued uncertainty rather than a clear change in trend.
CryptoQuant’s summary data also points to caution. Although the futures market has registered large whale orders, selling activity remains dominant and several other indicators are neutral.
ADA remains above key moving averages
At around $0.210, ADA was still trading above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, located at approximately $0.190 and $0.197, respectively. Holding above those levels provides some support for the short-term outlook, although momentum has weakened. The Relative Strength Index has moved back toward the upper-50s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence histogram is contracting.
On the upside, initial resistance is near $0.213, corresponding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline. A sustained move above that level could expose $0.231, the 61.8% retracement, followed by resistance at $0.236. A broader supply zone extends from $0.245 to $0.246, where horizontal resistance aligns with the 200-day EMA. A decisive break above that area would strengthen the bullish setup.
Support is positioned near $0.195, around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and close to the 50-day and 100-day EMAs. A sustained move below that zone could send ADA toward $0.173, the 23.6% retracement level. If selling pressure intensifies below $0.173, the token’s next major structural support may be near $0.150.
For now, whale accumulation provides a positive counterpoint to ADA’s weekly decline, but the combination of bearish derivatives positioning and fading momentum leaves the token’s immediate direction unresolved.
