Shiba Inu recovered nearly 4% earlier this week and was trading near $0.00000516 on Wednesday, but signs of whale distribution and bearish positioning in derivatives markets are limiting confidence in the rebound.
SHIB remains above its 50-day exponential moving average at approximately $0.00000489, a level that has recently acted as short-term support. However, continued selling by larger holders could make it harder for the token to sustain its recovery.
Larger wallets reduce their SHIB exposure
Santiment data shows that wallets holding between 1 million and 100 million SHIB collectively sold around 40 billion tokens between August 22 and Wednesday. The selling followed SHIB’s recent price recovery, suggesting that some larger holders may have used the move to take profits.
Smaller whale addresses, holding between 100,000 and 1 million SHIB, accumulated about 990 million tokens over the same period. That buying was substantially smaller than the volume distributed by the larger wallet groups, indicating that demand from smaller participants has not fully absorbed the supply coming onto the market.
Derivatives data points to defensive positioning
CoinGlass data showed a long-to-short ratio of 0.93 for SHIB on Wednesday. A reading below 1 means short positions outnumber long positions, pointing to expectations among derivatives traders that the token could come under further pressure.
CryptoQuant data also showed increased activity in both SHIB’s spot and futures markets, including large whale orders in futures after the recent price increase. The combination of whale selling and cautious derivatives positioning leaves the near-term outlook mixed.
SHIB must hold support to extend the recovery
SHIB’s rebound began after the token retested its 50-day EMA near $0.00000489. Holding above that level could allow the recovery to continue toward the 200-day EMA at approximately $0.00000569. A move above the longer-term average would strengthen the bullish case and expose higher resistance levels.
Momentum indicators remain divided. The daily relative strength index stands at 54 and is rising, placing it above the neutral 50 mark. However, the moving average convergence divergence indicator recorded a bearish crossover on Sunday, while its expanding red histogram suggests that downward momentum remains present.
A decisive daily close below $0.00000489 would weaken the recovery and raise the risk of a deeper decline. Conversely, sustained support above the 50-day EMA could give buyers an opportunity to challenge $0.00000569. The next major move is likely to depend on whether new demand can absorb continued whale distribution.
