ANZ, surely one of Australia’s four predominant banks, is soliciting for the Reserve Financial institution of Australia to rob the money price by 25 basis factors at its November 2026 meeting. If correct kind, it could presumably well presumably push the price to 4.60%, marking essentially the most well-known hike in a cycle that nearly all market contributors assumed turn into already over.
The resolution puts ANZ squarely at odds with the leisure of the market. Polymarket odds imply roughly an 86% chance that the RBA holds current in November, leaving easiest a 14% chance of the hike ANZ is forecasting.
What the RBA has been signaling
The RBA’s August 2026 board minutes published something nice looking: the central bank’s board actively debated whether a price hike turn into warranted to fight lingering inflationary pressures. They in the waste decided to address the money price at 4.35%, however the very fact that a hike turn into on the desk at all tells you the RBA hasn’t entirely closed the door on tightening.
The RBA has consistently communicated that it wants to stare inflation sustainably within its 2-3% aim band sooner than changing course. Governor Michele Bullock has many instances emphasised that choices will likely be guided by incoming data in preference to predetermined paths.
Why ANZ is the outlier
The broader consensus amongst predominant Australian banks tilts in direction of a protracted preserve during the leisure of 2026, with price cuts doubtlessly coming into the image in 2027. ANZ’s November hike call makes it the decided contrarian squawk in the room.
Market positioning and what merchants are searching at
Most merchants and institutional merchants are positioned for balance, searching ahead to the 4.35% price to persist neatly into 2027 sooner than cuts inaugurate up. If ANZ turns out to be correct, a shock hike would likely give a rob to the Australian dollar, push bond yields elevated, and establish extra stress on an already-stretched housing market.
The excessive variable between now and November is the September quarter inflation data, on the complete launched in unhurried October. If that print is available in above expectations, ANZ’s lonely forecast could presumably well presumably all straight away explore prescient. If it is available in mushy, the preserve-and-at closing-decrease camp will get its thesis confirmed.
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