ANZ expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points at its November 2026 meeting, taking the rate from 4.35% to 4.60%. The forecast places the bank against prevailing market expectations, which largely anticipate no change.
Polymarket pricing currently assigns an estimated 86% probability to the RBA maintaining its existing rate in November, compared with about 14% for a hike. Most traders and institutional investors expect the 4.35% cash rate to remain in place through much of 2026, with potential cuts moving into focus in 2027.
Inflation remains central to the RBA outlook
The RBA’s August 2026 meeting minutes showed that policymakers considered whether higher rates were necessary to address persistent inflation. The board ultimately voted to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, but the discussion indicated that further tightening has not been ruled out.
The central bank has repeatedly said that inflation must be moving sustainably within its 2% to 3% target range before it changes course. Governor Michele Bullock has also stressed that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data rather than a fixed policy path.
September inflation data could shape the decision
The September-quarter inflation report, expected in late October, is likely to be an important signal ahead of the November meeting. A stronger-than-expected reading could lend support to ANZ’s outlier forecast, while softer inflation would reinforce expectations that the RBA will hold rates and eventually begin cutting them.
A surprise hike would likely support the Australian dollar and push bond yields higher. It could also add to pressure on Australia’s already stretched housing market.
