Bitcoin is consolidating near $77,000 after rising more than 23% last week, its strongest weekly performance since mid-March 2023. The rally was supported by improved market sentiment following the US Treasury’s announcement that it could expand its debt buyback operations, as well as strong demand from institutional investors.
However, the advance has also prompted a wave of profit-taking. CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin holders realized approximately $1.72 billion in profits on Friday, the highest daily total since late November 2024. The increase suggests that some investors are using the rally to reduce exposure as BTC approaches the psychologically important $80,000 level.
ETF inflows provide support
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded about $1.92 billion in net inflows last week, according to SoSoValue data. It was the strongest weekly inflow of the year and the largest since mid-October 2025.
Continued ETF demand could help absorb the additional supply created by profit-taking. CryptoQuant’s net demand metric has also moved into positive territory after remaining negative since late February, indicating that buying interest has strengthened. A slowdown in institutional inflows, however, could make it more difficult for Bitcoin to sustain its recent gains.
$78,490 is the first major test
Bitcoin recently tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $78,490. That level is based on the move between the August 2024 low near $49,000 and the October 2025 record high of $126,199.
A weekly close above $78,490 would improve the broader bullish setup and put the 50-week simple moving average at $81,059 in focus. Bitcoin would first need to clear the $80,000 psychological barrier, after which the next major resistance levels would be the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $87,599 and the 100-week SMA near $88,990.
BTC remains above its 200-week SMA at $64,571. The weekly Relative Strength Index is near 55, above the neutral 50 mark, while the weekly MACD remains bullish after a positive crossover in mid-July. Rising histogram bars indicate that weekly upward momentum is still building.
Daily momentum is stretched
The daily chart presents a more cautious picture. Bitcoin is trading above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages at $66,786, $67,415 and $71,781, respectively. Yet the daily RSI has climbed to around 79, placing the market in overbought territory.
An overbought reading does not guarantee an immediate reversal, but it can signal that consolidation or a pullback may follow a sharp rally. The daily MACD remains positive, showing that bullish momentum is intact, although the elevated RSI leaves Bitcoin vulnerable to further profit-taking.
If BTC retreats, the 200-day EMA near $71,781 is the first significant support level, followed by the $70,000 area. Deeper support sits at the 100-day EMA near $67,415, the 50-day EMA at $66,786 and horizontal support around $66,500. A break below that zone could expose the next major support area near $62,300.
Bitcoin’s near-term direction will depend on whether institutional demand can offset selling from investors securing gains. A sustained move above $78,490 and $80,000 would keep targets at $81,059 and the $87,599-$88,990 range in focus.
