Bitcoin was trading below $86,000 on Tuesday as investors assessed whether the cryptocurrency’s recent recovery could extend toward the $90,000 mark. The move followed three consecutive weeks of gains totaling more than 12%, but renewed outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs offered a counterpoint to the broader improvement in market sentiment.
Bitcoin’s recovery has been supported by continued demand through exchange-traded funds and reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase. Even so, the cryptocurrency is approaching important technical resistance, while momentum indicators suggest that its advance may be entering a consolidation phase.
ETF demand remains positive despite latest outflow
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $241.09 million in net inflows last week, according to SoSoValue data. It was the third consecutive week of positive flows, providing a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin’s rebound from its mid-September levels.
The trend weakened at the start of the new week, however, when the funds registered approximately $90 million in net outflows on Monday. A single session does not establish a trend, but sustained buying would likely be important if Bitcoin is to overcome resistance above its current price. Weaker flows could leave the recovery more dependent on other market participants.
Weak jobs data reduces expectations for an October hike
Macroeconomic expectations have also become more favorable for risk assets. September U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, well below the 90,000 increase economists had expected, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The August figure was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000.
Following the employment report, CME FedWatch data put the probability of an October rate hike at 18.3% on Monday, down from roughly 70% the previous week. Lower expectations for additional tightening may support Bitcoin and other risk assets by easing concerns over more restrictive financial conditions, although those probabilities can change as new economic data is released.
$87,599 is the next major test
Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows initial resistance at $87,599. That level represents the 50% retracement between the August 2024 low of $49,000 and the October 2025 record high of $126,199. A sustained move above it would bring the 100-week simple moving average, near $89,832, into focus, followed by the psychological $90,000 level.
Weekly momentum remains constructive. The Relative Strength Index is around 62 and rising, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is showing increasingly positive histogram bars. On the daily chart, Bitcoin remains above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. The daily RSI is near 67, indicating strong momentum but remaining just below traditionally overbought territory. The daily MACD histogram has moved closer to zero, suggesting that upward pressure is beginning to moderate.
Near-term support is positioned at $85,000. A daily close below that level could weaken the current consolidation structure and expose the 50-day EMA near $79,189. Further support is located around the 100-day EMA at $75,367 and the 200-day EMA near $74,994, with longer-range horizontal levels at $66,500 and $62,300.
Bitcoin’s recovery therefore remains intact, but a decisive break above $87,599 would provide stronger confirmation that the market is prepared to challenge $90,000. Conversely, a loss of $85,000 would increase the risk of a deeper pullback.
