XRP extended its rebound on Thursday, trading above $1.30 as it held a key technical support zone. However, mixed futures positioning and cautious on-chain signals suggest traders remain unconvinced that the recovery can develop into a sustained uptrend.
Derivatives market sends conflicting signals
XRP’s long-to-short ratio rose to 1.06, its highest level in more than a month, according to CoinGlass. The reading indicates that long positions slightly outnumber shorts and points to a modestly bullish bias among traders.
Funding rates, however, tell a different story. XRP’s funding rate turned negative on Wednesday and stood at -0.0040% on Thursday. Negative funding means traders holding short positions are paying those in long positions, suggesting that bearish bets have become more aggressive despite the positive long-to-short ratio.
CryptoQuant’s market indicators also point to caution. The data shows signs of overheating in XRP’s spot market, while futures activity reflects sell-side dominance. Increased participation from retail traders could add volatility if leveraged positions become crowded, making the recovery more vulnerable to sharp moves.
$1.25-$1.28 zone remains important
XRP is currently holding above its 50-day exponential moving average at $1.284 and its 100-day EMA at $1.255. Together, those levels create a support area between approximately $1.25 and $1.28.
Momentum indicators remain subdued. XRP’s Relative Strength Index is near 46, a neutral-to-weak reading, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains below zero. Both suggest that bullish momentum has not yet fully returned.
$1.353 is the next major test
The 200-day EMA at $1.353 is the key resistance level for XRP’s recovery. A daily close above it could improve the technical outlook and open a path toward the next significant resistance near $1.90.
If XRP fails to clear $1.353, the token may remain range-bound and risk another pullback toward the $1.30 area. A break below the $1.25-$1.28 support cluster would weaken the recovery further and could expose the psychological $1 level.
