Dogecoin recovered modestly on Friday after falling by roughly 3% in each of the previous two sessions, but the rebound did little to change its short-term technical outlook. DOGE remained below several key moving averages, leaving the $0.0800 area as an important support zone for the meme coin.
Downward pressure was also highlighted by Bitwise’s decision to close its BWOW Dogecoin exchange-traded fund. The firm said the ETF’s final trading day will be October 14, followed by the conversion of its DOGE holdings into cash. Bitwise expects the liquidation process to be completed on October 22, with the remaining cash distributed to shareholders.
BWOW held approximately $687,730 in net assets as of Thursday, according to SoSoValue. Any selling linked to the liquidation could add pressure to DOGE, although the fund is significantly smaller than other Dogecoin investment products. Grayscale’s GDOG ETF held about $8.61 million, while 21Shares’ TDOG fund managed approximately $2.53 million.
DOGE remains below key technical levels
On the four-hour chart, Dogecoin was trading slightly above $0.0800 but below its 100-period exponential moving average at $0.0857 and its 50-period EMA at $0.0870. The token was also testing the 200-period EMA near $0.0827, which has been acting as near-term dynamic support.
A confirmed move below the 200-period EMA could expose the recent low at $0.0801. If that level fails, the next downside target is the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $0.0745, followed by the 161.8% extension near $0.0673. A decline from $0.0801 to $0.0673 would represent a drop of roughly 16%.
Momentum indicators remain weak. The four-hour Relative Strength Index was near 35, just above oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remained below its zero line. Although the RSI reading suggests selling could eventually lose momentum, neither indicator had produced a confirmed reversal signal.
Recovery requires a break above resistance
For the bearish setup to weaken, DOGE would first need to reclaim the $0.0845 level, corresponding to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Further resistance is positioned around the 100-period EMA at $0.0857, the 50-period EMA at $0.0870 and the $0.0904 area, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
A sustained move above $0.0904 would improve Dogecoin’s near-term outlook. Until then, a break below $0.0800 remains a risk, particularly as Bitwise prepares to wind down its relatively small DOGE-focused ETF.
