Arbitrum could significantly outperform Bitcoin and Ether by 2030 if the network captures a growing share of revenue from traditional financial firms moving assets and services onchain, according to Standard Chartered.
Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, said Arbitrum’s business model gives it substantial upside because the layer-2 network receives 10% of the net protocol revenue generated by companies building on it.
Robinhood Chain boosts Arbitrum revenue
Robinhood Chain, developed by online brokerage Robinhood, is the first major example of that model. Kendrick said the project has already materially improved Arbitrum’s economics since launching in July.
At its current run rate, Arbitrum is expected to generate $5 million in revenue in September. That is more than five times the level recorded before Robinhood Chain went live.
Standard Chartered projects that stronger network economics could support a long-term rise in ARB. Kendrick’s forecast puts the token as high as $10 by 2030. ARB was trading at about $0.14 on Tuesday after gaining 86% over the previous month, according to CoinGecko. Reaching the bank’s target would represent an increase of roughly 70 times from that level, exceeding Standard Chartered’s projected returns for Bitcoin and Ether over the same period.
Tokenization is central to the thesis
The outlook depends heavily on the expansion of tokenized real-world assets. Data from RWA.xyz shows that the market has reached a cumulative value of nearly $39 billion, while Standard Chartered expects tokenized assets to grow to $4 trillion by the end of 2028 as banks and asset managers bring more assets onto blockchains.
Arbitrum could benefit because companies can use its infrastructure to launch their own layer-2 networks, with Arbitrum receiving a share of the revenue those networks generate. Standard Chartered has also identified the growth of asset tokenization as a factor behind its positive outlook for Chainlink and decentralized finance more broadly.
Kendrick identified two key risks to the ARB projection: asset tokenization could develop more slowly than expected, and competing blockchain networks could capture demand that might otherwise flow to Arbitrum.
