PEPE was trading near $0.00000348 on Thursday after failing to break above its 200-day exponential moving average, while on-chain data showed large holders reducing their exposure. The combination of whale selling, weakening momentum and mixed derivatives signals has left the meme coin vulnerable to further losses.
Large holders distribute after August rally
Data from Santiment’s Supply Distribution tracker shows that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million PEPE have collectively sold approximately 80 billion tokens since August 25. The selling followed PEPE’s strong gains in mid-August and suggests that larger holders may have been taking profits.
Over the same period, wallets holding between 100,000 and 10 million PEPE accumulated a combined 5.06 billion tokens. That buying, however, represents only a fraction of the volume distributed by the larger holders, leaving the balance of supply flows tilted toward potential short-term selling pressure.
Derivatives indicators send conflicting signals
PEPE’s derivatives market does not present a uniform outlook. Its long-to-short ratio stood at 1.05 on Thursday, close to its highest level in more than a month, indicating that long positions slightly outnumbered short positions.
Funding data was more cautious. PEPE’s open-interest-weighted funding rate turned negative on Wednesday and fell to -0.0067% on Thursday. A negative rate means traders holding short positions are paying those with long positions, a setup that generally reflects stronger bearish positioning and conflicts with the relatively positive long-to-short ratio.
Key support levels come into focus
PEPE was rejected at its 200-day EMA near $0.00000364 during the previous session. The failed breakout leaves that level as an important barrier for bulls. Momentum has also weakened, with the Relative Strength Index moving down toward the neutral 50 level and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator maintaining a bearish crossover formed last week.
The 50-day and 100-day EMAs offer initial support near $0.00000320, while a more important horizontal support level is located around $0.00000313. A daily close below that level could open the way toward the next major support near $0.00000230, representing an approximate 34% decline from PEPE’s current price.
For the bearish outlook to ease, PEPE would need to close above the 200-day EMA at $0.00000364. A sustained break above that resistance could expose the next daily resistance level near $0.00000442.
