Cardano’s ADA token was trading near $0.207 on Monday after losing more than 8% over the previous week, bringing the market close to a key support area around $0.199-$0.200. While the token remains slightly above several important moving averages, derivatives data suggests that any recovery could face resistance.
Derivatives market remains cautious
CoinGlass data put ADA’s long-to-short ratio at 0.91, close to its lowest level in a month. A reading below one indicates that short positions outnumber long positions, pointing to expectations of further weakness among derivatives traders.
Funding, however, turned positive at 0.0052%. Positive funding means long-position holders are paying short-position holders and can indicate that some traders are positioning for a rebound. The conflicting signals point to an uncertain market rather than a clear bullish or bearish consensus.
CryptoQuant’s market overview also showed heightened activity in ADA futures and spot markets. Large whale orders were visible in the futures market, but sell-side activity remained dominant. The combination of heavier trading and persistent selling pressure could increase volatility around the $0.20 support zone.
ADA holds above short-term technical support
At approximately $0.207, ADA was trading above its 50-day exponential moving average at $0.199 and its 100-day EMA at $0.200. The Relative Strength Index stood at 50, indicating balanced momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remained slightly negative, suggesting that bullish momentum has not yet strengthened enough to confirm a recovery.
ADA’s first notable resistance is the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $0.213. A move above that level could open a test of the 61.8% retracement at $0.231. Additional resistance is located around $0.236, the 200-day EMA near $0.240 and a horizontal level at $0.245.
A decisive move above $0.245 would improve the token’s medium-term outlook and bring the $0.299 area into focus. On the downside, a break below the 50-day and 100-day EMAs around $0.20 would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $0.195, followed by structural support at $0.173 and $0.150.
