Market expectations for a US-Iran agreement restoring normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have weakened after fresh statements from US President Donald Trump and Iranian military figure Mohsen Rezaei.
Trump wrote on Truth Social that the strategic waterway was “unique US territory.” Rezaei, meanwhile, said the strait would remain closed unless the United States changed its conduct. The comments have added to uncertainty surrounding the already strained diplomatic relationship between Washington and Tehran.
Polymarket odds fall for August agreement
Polymarket pricing now puts the probability of an agreement being reached by August 31 at 2.5%, down from 3% 24 hours earlier. The decline indicates that traders see a reduced chance of a near-term diplomatic resolution and the restoration of regular maritime traffic.
The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for global oil shipments, meaning any prolonged disruption could carry broader geopolitical and economic consequences. The actions and public communications of the U.S. Central Command and Iranian maritime authorities are likely to remain important signals for markets.
Further diplomatic announcements or military activity could shift expectations again. A formal ceasefire or joint US-Iran statement could improve the outlook for an agreement, while additional restrictions on the strait or reports of escalation could reinforce current market skepticism. August 31 and September 16 are the next key dates being monitored by traders.
